Political Betting- Yes or No Vote?

August 31, 2014
Political Betting

An extremely wealthy gambler has put down a stake of £600,000, hoping that there will be a no vote in the next Scottish independence referendum. The stake is believed to be the biggest political bet ever to date. The wager was placed at major high street bookmaker William Hill, who along with taking high stakes political bets, offer a range of casino, sports, and slot machine action on their website.

The original bet was set to be for £400,000, but the confident gambler later increased the wager to £600,000, after the referendum debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling favoured the no vote. William Hill said the wager is a record breaking figure (previous record stood at £419,000), but offered the high stakes gambler reduced odds on the extra £200,000, after the odds on a note vote were slashed due to the televised referendum debate. The original odds were set at 1/4 in June, but have since been lowered to 1/6. If the punter wins the bet, they stand to pocket £133,333. Odds on a yes vote are much more favourable at odds of 9/2.

What do the experts think?

Well since the debate between Salmond and Darling slid in favour of the no vote, the likelihood of a yes vote dropped by 10.5%. The yes vote stood at 24% before the televised debate, and sat at 13.5% two days after. David Bell, an expert in the field of Scottish economics, said the likelihood of a no vote come September is around a 79% favourite. He went on to say one of the reasons the odds against a yes vote had increased were due to the huge £400,000 stake laid on by the brave gambler in June. Although several bets have been made in favour of the yes vote, they are in much smaller amounts, and the bookies are hedging their bets.

What does the William Hill CEO think?

Ralph Topping, who is the current chief executive of William Hill, believes that the result in September will be a yes vote. He said in a statement:

“The Treasury should stop playing politics and listen to market voices wanting a collaborative approach to the monetary system between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK. In this respect, common sense economics was always going to trump politics.”

What do you think?

Do you think the referendum in September will be a yes or no vote? Check the latest odds at William Hill and see if you can cash in come September. For other casino related news, visit our gambling online homepage.